Bad Scenario Monday

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Some defeats never lose their sting. In Washington this week, Hillary Clinton summed up her bid for the White House in 2016.

“You can run the best campaign. You can have the best plans. You can get the nomination. You can win the popular vote. And you can lose the electoral college and therefore the election.”

Clinton beat Donald Trump in the popular vote by nearly 3 million ballots yet lost the electoral college – the body of people who represent states and actually get to choose the president – by 304 votes to 227. A black swan event never to be repeated? No. In 2020, it could easily happen again.

A study from the University of Texas at Austin found that the electoral college is much more likely than previously thought to elect the candidate who loses the popular vote. In close elections, researchers argues, such “inversions” are normal, not exceptional.

In a race decided by less than 2% (2.6m votes), the study found, the probability of an inversion is 32%. In a race decided by less than 1% (1.3m votes), the probability is 45%.

“It’s almost a coin flip,” said Michael Geruso, an assistant economics professor.

David Smith @ THE GUARDIAN

About Den

Always in search of interesting things to post. Armed with knowledge and dangerous with the ladies.
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16 Responses to Bad Scenario Monday

  1. Micki says:

    There are many who believe that Hillary Clinton did NOT run the best campaign … sure, there are huge problems with the Electoral College, but she played a significant role in losing her 2016 presidential bid.

    Like

  2. Micki says:

    As usual…the blame game in full mode….The Guardian is more measured in its assessment than other outlets.

    Collapse of Thomas Cook — the *venerable* travel company:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/sep/23/thomas-cook-debt-brexit

    Like

  3. David B. Benson says:

    This is Banned Books Week.

    Like

  4. David B. Benson says:

    A t-shirt pictured a claw hammer and read “This is not a drill”.

    A steady 16 minutes to the north door of the Hillside Cafe.

    Like

  5. Den says:

    Fall is upon us:

    Like

  6. David B. Benson says:

    I bicycled across this great sea dike in the summer of 1962. Wasn’t 4 lanes then:
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/phys.org/news/2019-09-dutch-major-dike-seas-climate.amp

    Like

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